Rudd's China-friendliness will put China-Canada relation in colder waters
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The quick answer is: Canada will tail behind more.
| CHINA IMPORTS FROM ($) | |||
| Canada | Australia | USA | |
| 2003 | 4,374,492,403 | 7,300,072,115 | 33,944,165,955 |
| 2004 | 7,352,990,098 | 11,552,488,752 | 44,747,868,764 |
| 2005 | 7,511,155,033 | 16,193,626,752 | 48,741,358,502 |
| 2006 | 7,662,114,176 | 19,323,299,466 | 59,314,269,712 |
| 2003-2006 % | 75.15 | 164.7 | 74.74 |
| 2004-2006 % | 4.2 | 67.27 | 32.55 |
| 2005-2006 % | 2.01 | 19.33 | 21.69 |
| CHINA EXPORTS TO ($) | |||
| Canada | Australia | USA | |
| 2003 | 5,632,183,952 | 6,263,578,991 | 92,626,296,055 |
| 2004 | 8,161,179,224 | 8,838,251,022 | 125,148,955,896 |
| 2005 | 11,653,674,562 | 11,061,500,935 | 163,180,459,034 |
| 2006 | 15,516,844,612 | 13,624,882,168 | 203,801,045,737 |
| 2003-2006 % | 175.5 | 117.53 | 120.03 |
| 2004-2006 % | 90.13 | 54.16 | 62.85 |
| 2005-2006 % | 33.15 | 23.17 | 24.89 |
| Source: United Nations Commodity Database | |||
| CHINA IMPORTS FROM CANADA ($) - PER CAPITA OF CANADA | |||
| % +/- | |||
| 2003 | 4,374,492,403 | 131.01 | |
| 2004 | 7,352,990,098 | 220.21 | 68.09 |
| 2005 | 7,511,155,033 | 224.95 | 2.15 |
| 2006 | 7,662,114,176 | 229.47 | 2.01 |
| CHINA IMPORTS FROM AUS ($) - PER CAPITA OF AUS | |||
| % +/- | |||
| 2003 | 7,300,072,115 | 357.25 | |
| 2004 | 11,552,488,752 | 565.35 | 58.25 |
| 2005 | 16,193,626,752 | 792.48 | 40.17 |
| 2006 | 19,323,299,466 | 945.64 | 19.33 |
| CHINA EXPORTS TO CANADA ($) - PER CAPITA CANADA | |||
| % +/- | |||
| 2003 | 5,632,183,952 | 168.68 | |
| 2004 | 8,161,179,224 | 244.42 | 44.9 |
| 2005 | 11,653,674,562 | 349.02 | 42.79 |
| 2006 | 15,516,844,612 | 464.71 | 33.15 |
| CHINA EXPORTS TO AUS ($) - PER CAPITA OF AUS | |||
| % +/- | |||
| 2003 | 6,263,578,991 | 306.52 | |
| 2004 | 8,838,251,022 | 432.52 | 41.11 |
| 2005 | 11,061,500,935 | 541.32 | 25.15 |
| 2006 | 13,624,882,168 | 666.77 | 23.17 |
Rudd has already said that he would make Australia a Western country that understands China and Asia most.
These are no empty words. Rudd really understands Chinese culture well.
- At 10, Rudd's mother gave him a book about ancient Chinese civilization. He instantly became amazed by the culture.
- During university years, Rudd's major was Chinese politics and gave himself a Chinese name "Lu Kewen".
- All three children learn Chinese. One son-in-law is a Hong Kong immigrant. Rudd's eldest son studied in Fudan University in Shanghai.
- China's official Xinhua news agency carried reports on Sunday of Rudd greeting Chinese President Hu Jintao in fluent Mandarin in September and of his posting to Australia's Beijing embassy in the 1980s.
- "This period of history gave him close contact with China and a chance to observe and understand China's politics, economy and culture," the report said.
- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao sent a separate message to Kevin Rudd, congratulating him on his election victory.
- Yesterday the Australian leader also spoke in fluent Chinese during an interview with China's state broadcaster CCTV in which he said he was "very optimistic about the future of bilateral ties."
A CIV research indicates that even with the "1950s attitude to Asia" of former PM John Howard, Australia has outperformed Canada in trades with China.
In 2003, Australian exports to China was only $7.3b while Canadian exports to China was a pitiful $4.4b. At the same year, US's exports to China was $34b.
In 2006, the Australian exports to China surged to $19b, a jaw-dropping jump of 164.7% over 2003. While at the same time, Canada was struggling around $7.6b for three consecutive years.
As analysts told AFP:
Howard's government in its early years also alienated Asia's other rising power, India, but the rapid economic growth of both countries later prompted Australia to work hard at repairing relations.Howard, like Stephen Harper, is a "true friend" of George W. Bush. They share the same conservative ideology.
This saw Australia able to capitalize on Asia's insatiable hunger for its abundant natural resources, and Howard went on to preside over an unprecedented economic boom driven by trade with the region.
But unlike Harper, Howard took a more pragmatic approach in dealing with China, and so did Bush in later years. This is why Australia has been so successful in increasing its exports to China. The US's exports to China have also enjoyed a double digit increase in the period of 2003-2006. Unfortunately, Canada is tailing further behind with a dismal 2.01% increase between 2005-2006.
With Kevin Rudd's language ability and his true admiration of the Chinese culture, he will forge an unprecedentally intimate relation with China, as the Chinese people are always impressed by foreigners who can speak their language.
Canada and Australia have a lot in similarity to China. Both are rich in natural resources. Australia has the world's largest reserve of coal and Canada is second. As China still relies heavily on coal to generate power, Australia can easily beat Canada to be the main, if not sole, supplier of coal to China.
But you may say, we have oil! Yes, we have oil. But our government is still stuck in the Cold War mind towards China and we are reluctant to allow China to have greater access to our rich oil deposits.
Australia has a population of about 20 million and Canada at around 33 million.
If we take the Australian-Chinese trade figures and do a per capita calculation, we can see that the per capita Australian export value to China stands at $945.64 in 2006. However, Canada's per capita export value to China in the same period is only $229.47.
Canada is supposed to be in a better position to do business with China. Between 1991 and 2006, 477,185 immigrants from China landed in Canada. While at the same period, Australia only received 105,020 Chinese immigrants -- only 1/4 that of Canada (source).
It is so clear that Canada fails to leverage the strong people ties we have to push for a better trade relationship with China.
As such, I think China would only get more willing to do business with Rudd than with Harper.
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